Public Social Services Investments and Nigeria’s Life Expectancy at Birth: A Review of Short-Run ARDL Dynamics

Abstract

Nigeria’s government spending, between 2015 and 2024, averaged approximately 13.1% of GDP, though well below the 21.2% Sub-Saharan average and ~30% global average, but as increased. However, human capital index has continued to show poor outcomes – leaving life expectancy at birth far below 60 years. Aroused by this, the impact of public social services investment on Nigeria’s life expectancy at birth from 1986 to 2023 is examined. As independent variables, government expenditures on education (GOXE), health (GOXH), research and development (GORD) capture public social service investments, while life expectancy at birth (LIEB) serves as dependent variable. Using secondary data sourced from the bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria, the study adopts short-run autoregressive distributive lag dynamic econometric method for data analysis. Resultantly, the analysis reveals that government expenditures on education, health, research and development in the current, lags 1, 2 and 3 periods do not significantly impact on Nigeria’s life expectancy. Consequently, the study concluded that public social service investments have not made reasonable contributions towards improvement of life expectancy at birth in Nigeria. Prioritizing budget toward social services and improving the efficiency and accountability of social spending on education, health, research and development are recommended as the way forward.