Examining the effect of tuition structure on enrollment dynamics in faith-based private Universities: Evidence from IUIU–Female Campus (2015–2023)

Abstract

Access to higher education remains a central pillar for human capital development and gender equity in Uganda. However, tuition affordability continues to shape students’ access and retention, particularly in private universities that depend heavily on tuition income. This study examined the relationship between tuition structure and student enrollment trends at the Islamic University in Uganda – Female Campus (IUIU-FC) from 2015 to 2023. Specifically, the research aimed to: (i) analyze the effect of tuition expenditure on student enrollment; (ii) examine the responsiveness of enrollment to changes in tuition fees; and (iii) investigate the moderating factors influencing the tuition–enrollment relationship. The study employed a quantitative, correlational, and longitudinal design, using secondary data obtained from IUIU-FC's financial and admission records, as well as the National Council for Higher Education (NCHE) 's annual reports. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple regression techniques in SPSS v.26. The model results revealed an Adjusted R² of 0.435, indicating that tuition expenditure explained 43.5 percent of the variation in student enrollment during the study period. Regression coefficients showed a positive but statistically insignificant relationship between tuition expenditure and enrollment (β = 0.705, p > 0.05) and an inelastic response of enrollment to tuition changes (β = 0.574, p = 0.137 > 0.05). These results suggest that changes in tuition fees did not significantly influence student enrollment at IUIU-FC, implying that female students’ enrollment decisions were more shaped by non-economic factors, such as institutional reputation, flexible payment options, and scholarship opportunities. The findings support Human Capital Theory (Becker, 1964) and Price Elasticity Theory of Demand (Marshall, 1890), showing that tuition affects educational investment decisions but that demand for higher education among female students is relatively inelastic. The study concludes that while tuition expenditure moderately explains variations in enrollment, other socio-economic, cultural, and policy variables play greater roles. It recommends the adoption of gender-responsive tuition policies, expansion of scholarship and bursary schemes, diversification of institutional revenue streams, and enhanced community sensitization on the value of women’s education.